Mirror, Mirror on the Wall

Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread

Fri Oct 11 07:36:00 2019
www.bis.org

Financial cycles can be important drivers of real activity, but there is scant evidence about how well they signal recession risks. We run a horse race between the term spread - the most widely used indicator in the literature - and a range of financial cycle measures. Unlike most papers, ours assesses ...

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Jacqueline Loh: The changing world

Thu Oct 10 22:00:00 2019
www.bis.org

Keynote speech by Ms Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at The World Federation of Exchanges General Assembly and Annual Meeting, Singapore, 9 October 2019.

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